The climate fix - behind closed doors

UN Sec-Gen Ban Ki-Moon has ordered all UN agencies to toe the line supported by the banksters and WBCSD (the lobby of the big non-oil multinationals) --  to finance the "green economy" not by direct aid or by taxing international financial speculators, but by carbon markets (CDM, REDD, PES) without adequate safeguards on additionality, informed consent of vulnerable populations e.g. in UNDRIP, human rights guarantees, or an appeal procedure. This will create a carbon casino, a new bubble that will end in another economic bust -- while adding to poor countries' debt burden, and distorting "development".

By banksters, I mean the crowd who brought you the world-economy meltdowns of 2000 and 2007, the bailouts that your children and grandchildren will still be paying for, toothless "regulation" of international financial speculation in Basel III, the jobless recovery, and now expect to make a killing in unregulated carbon markets. A real killing: an estimated 300,000 die yearly from the impacts of climate change. The perps include the usual suspects: big banks, indistinguishable from vulture cap and OTC finance since the abolition of the Glass-Steagall law, the Bretton Woods institutions they control (IMF, World Bank), bound up together in the Washington Consensus that keeps the Third World in abject poverty. The same powers refuse direct aid to the world's poor -- when aid comes, it takes the form of debt that forces fire-sale prices of state assets and natural resources, or is "tied" to products and service of the donor country, i.e. just another subsidy to corporate lobbyists. The UN refers to the triple crisis of food, climate and fuel; phony "aid" worsens all three.

UNEP-RONA civil consultations Oct 13-15 (see our previous reports) are intended to get well-meaning NGOs and faith groups to back the UN's Rio+20 "green economy" deal -- without safeguards for indigenous peoples, with no appeal mechanism nor adequate MDG financing. Less than a week later the UNEP Finance Initiative will launch the carbon market scheme in Washington, pre-empting both Durban and Rio.

The climate deal with the banksters will be sealed before people even know about it.

Look at this sequence of events:

3-5 Sep UNEP Global Consultation with Major Groups and Stakeholders on Rio+20, September 1, 2011 and the 64^th Annual UN DPI: NGOs Conference, Bonn where European NGOs called for:
1. A ‘green’ economic system [that] must promote social equity, gender equity and intergenerational equity. A truly sustainable ‘green economy’ [that] functions within the limits of the planet, and ensures a fair distribution of resources among all countries and social groups - as well as between men and women. We need an economy that provides incentives for zero-waste, low-carbon economies that enhance and restore the natural environment, while also providing new ‘green’ livelihoods, employment and entrepreneurial opportunities for women as well as men. That is why 10 YFP SCP implementation should be the basis of Green Economy policies.
2. In order to achieve a truly green economy, we need better regulation of international financial actors and financial flows. Specific instruments to achieve a greening of the economy were proposed ...
- New indicators for well-being. It is in the interest of youth and future generations,that bold steps will be taken towards a green economy in the context of sustainable development and
poverty eradication. In order to achieve the transition to green economies, the actual political
implementation of concepts such as new (set of) indicators for measuring development and the
internalisation of external costs must ensured and backed up by effective governance systems.
- Planetary boundaries to be assessed and made the basis of decision-making on the basis of best
available scientific knowledge, taking into account the precautionary principle
- The introduction of a global Financial Transaction Tax [on international transfers], to contribute to financing protection of our global commons and of sustainable development and investments in green and inclusive economies.
- Eco-efficiency instruments are important, but there is also a need for ‘sufficiency’ instruments(social innovation, caps on resource use, …), especially in the Northern countries to tackle the over-consumption of -- and excessive pressure on -- natural resources.
3. Independent Technology Assessment...
4. Nuclear and uranium lifecycle control...
These repeated NGO demands, beginning at COP-15 in Copenhagen, have been studiously ignored by the UN, WBCSD, G20 and Washington Consensus. By no coincidence, they would slow down speculation. Wall St, the City and the gnomes of Zurich hate the FTT and will do anything to stop it.

22 Sep U.S. Green Building Council, UN Environment Programme and World Business Council for Sustainable Development Announce Partnership on Rio+20 - followup at Oct 4 Toronto conference

Oct 11 UNEP and GEF's Open Forum on the Carbon Benefits Project at the World Bank, Washington

Oct 13-14 UNEP-RONA Regional civil society consultation for North America, Washington

Oct 19-20 UNEP Finance Initiative, Washington DC - its Global Roundtable. Look at the program and speakers for day 1 and day 2. If that ain't "the fix is in" I'm a lousy analyst. Confirmed participants include:

Accession International, Inc.
Acciona Energia Mexico
AE
ALIDE-Latin American Association of Development Financing Institutions
American University
APG Asset Management US Inc
Argo Insurance Group
ASN Bank
ASOBANCARIA
Aviva Investors
AXA Group
Banco Bradesco 
Banco do Brasil 
Banco Rabobank International Brasil S.A. 
Banco Santander Brasil 
BANCOLDEX S.A. 
BANCOLOMBIA 
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 
Bank of Montreal 
Banking Association South Africa 
Barclays PLC 
BECAUSE 
Bentall Kennedy (U.S.) LP 
Bernstein Center, Columbia University 
BICBANCO 
Bloomberg 
BNDES 
BNP PARIBAS 
BNY Mellon 
Brazilian Federation of Banks 
Brown & Co 
BSD Consulting 
BSR
Caisse des Depots, Québec
CalPERS 
Calvert Investment 
Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership 
Carbon Disclosure Project 
Carbon War Room 
cent.Force CO.,LTD 
Ceres, Inc. 
CFA Institute 
Change Logic LLC 
China Development Bank 
China Merchants Bank 
CIBC 
Citigroup 
ClearBridge Advisors 
Colonial First State Global Asset Management (Commonwealth Bank of Australia) 
Commercial Mortgage Alert 
Connexis Strategy Consultants 
Conservation International 
CREDIT ANDORRA 
Credit Suisse 
Cybaxx Enviromental Service Co. Ltd
DEG 
Deloitte 
Desjardins Group 
DEUTSCHE BANK 
Division for Sustainable Development, UN DESA 
DnB NOR 
DVFA
EarthSea 
EBF 
EBRD 
ECOFACT AG 
Econoler 
ecos 
Ecosystem Marketplace 
EFIC 
EIRIS 
Embassy of France 
Environmental Law Institute 
EPA 
Ethical Markets Media (USA and Brazil) 
Eurizon Capital 
EUROBANK EFG 
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 
Evironmental Resources Management
F&C REIT Asset Management 
FD 
FGVces 
FirstRand Limited 
FirstRand Ltd 
FMO 
Forest Footprint Disclosure Project 
Fox School of Business, Temple University 
Fundaciao Social
GiCaP Products 
GIIRS 
Global Energy Assessment 
Global Leadership Interlink 
GLOBE Foundation 
GUARDIAN HOLDINGS LIMITED
Handelsbanken 
Harvard Business School 
Helm Group 
Hermes Focus Asset Management Ltd 
HSBC Bank plc
Indepedent Consultant 
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 
Industrial Development Corporation 
Inflection Point Capital Management 
Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Ltd 
Insurance Australia Group 
Inter-American Development Bank 
Inter-American Development Bank 
Inter-American Development Bank 
International Finance Corporation 
International Institute for Sustainable Development 
IRRC Institute 
Itau Unibanco
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated 
JPMorgan
KfW 
KPA Pension 
KPMG
Macquarie Bank 
Manulife Financial 
MaRS Discovery District 
mecu Limited 
Ministry of Economic Affairs, Netherlands 
MINISTRY OF NIGER-DELTA, Nigeria 
Mizuho Corporate Bank, Ltd. 
MSCI, Inc. 
Munich Re 
Munich Reinsurance Company 
Mutualista Pichincha
National Academy of Sciences 
National Association of Insurance Commissioners, USA 
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan 
National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy, Canada 
Nedbank Ltd
Oceanic Insurance Group 
OPIC
Pace Law School 
Pacific Institute 
Pax World Management LLC 
Portfolio 21 Investments 
Principles for Responsible Investment 
PROFONANPE 
PRUPIM
Rabobank Nederland 
Raiffeisen Zentralbank Austria AG 
RBC Capital Markets 
Renco Technologies Private Ltd. 
Royal Bank of Canada 
Royal instute of thecnologhy 
ROYAL MICROFINANCE OF ZAMBIA LIMITED
Samsung Fire and Marine Insurance 
Santam 
Santander Brazil 
Sarah Cleveland 
SEB 
Shell Oil Company 
Social Investment Organization 
Societe Generale 
Sovereign 
SSgA 
Standard Bank  
State Street Corporation 
State Street Global Advisors 
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group 
Sustainable Business Institute (SBI) 
Sustainable Prosperity 
Sustainalytics 
Swiss Re
TD Bank Group 
The Conference Board 
The Co-operators Group Ltd. 
The George Washington University Law School 
The Jervey Group 
The Northern Trust Company 
The Sumitomo Trust and Banking Co., Ltd. 
The Transition Group 
The World Bank 
Trillium Asset Management, LLC
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 
U.S. General Services Administration 
U.S. Green Building Council 
U.S. House Natural Resources Committee
UBS 
UNDP 
UNFCCC 
UniCredit 
Uniethos 
United Nations Foundation 
University of Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership 
University of Waterloo 
US Agency for International Development 
US Department of Energy
Village Corps 
Virgin Islands Legislature
Washington State Insurance Commissioner’s Office 
WestLB 
Willis 
World Economic Forum 
World Green Building Council 
World Resources Institute 
WWF China 
WWF US 
WWF-SA
XL Insurance
Zenith Bank PLC
And at the Jan 2012 Climate Finance & Carbon Markets Africa:
Ariesta Ningrum, Team Lead, Sustainable Development Mechanisms, UNFCCC
Nelly Magubane, Director General, Department of Energy, South Africa
Adam Simcock, CEO, Carbon Check, South Africa
Geoff Sinclair, Head of Carbon Trading, Standard Bank, UK
Kevin Whitfield, Head, African Treasury and Financial Products Unit, Nedbank Capital, South Africa
Henk Sa, Managing Director, Ecometrix, South Africa
Antoine Degri, CEO, ADERCI, Ivory Coast
Ntombifuthi Ntuli, Business to Business Programme Officer, Danish Embassy, South Africa
Enoch Lerato Liphoto, Senior Advisor, Climate Change, Eskom Holdings, South Africa
Hussein Elhag, Executive Director, Africa Energy Commission, Algeria
Georges Bakaly, Managing Director, WESD Capital, DRC
Bubu Jallow, Chief Technical Adviser, Department of Water Resources, The Gambia
Amos Wafula Wekesa, Environmental and Climate Change Advisor, VI-Agroforestry Programme Eastern Africa, Kenya
Philippe Decq, Sales and Marketing Manager, South Europe,Africa and Middle East, DnV, France
Ciska Terblanche, Managing Director, CDM Africa, South Africa
Heba Rabie, Regional Manager, Africa and Middle East, The Gold Standard Foundation, Egypt 

350 ppm: "the most important number in the world" - Bill McKibben

Click on 350 to see animation

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Earth climate map: US DOE

Last December, while industrial nations dithered and ducked the issue at Bali, chief NASA scientist James Hansen declared that the planet's air already contained 385 ppm of CO2, increasing by 2 ppm yearly, and that anything above a 350 ppm "tipping point" invites catastrophe.(1)

Tufts University researchers have just put a price tag on delay; by 2100 global warming will cost the US economy $3.8 trillion a year! This bombshell news is the equivalent of the Stern Report in the UK.(2)

Significantly, the corporate elite of Davos (the World Economic Forum) and the WBCSD (World Business Council on Sustainable Development) are now in Japan at the G8 meeting, demanding action on climate change.(3)

By the standards of the market itself, "business as usual" is a dangerous and losing proposition. President Bush, Prime Minister Harper, the Wall Street Journal, the oil and coal lobbies, and a host of well-paid deniers have painted themselves into a corner.

The last six months have seen an unprecedented coming-together of environmental groups in the USA and around the world. For example: in 350.org McKibben's Step It Up has partnered with the new 1sky coalition, Al Gore's ACP and We campaigns, Peter Barnes, the Rainforest Action Network, Vandana Shiva and the India Youth Climate Network, Quaker Earthcare Witness, Van Jones and his "green jobs" following among black Americans, to name only a few. Their allies include Greenpeace, Sierra, Friends of the Earth, Avaaz.org, Paul Hawken's Wiser Earth (itself a network of over 100,000 organizations), the Suzuki Foundation, Pembina Institute, Natural Resources Defense Council, FCNL, NAE's CreationCare, COEJL, the Union of Concerned Scientists, SOS-Live Earth, Earth Charter and many others.(4)

McKibben says we no longer have 10 years to decide. The window is closing -- the post-Kyoto framework, to be decided by heads of state at CSD-17 in December 2009 in Copenhagen, is "our last chance at a low-carbon future".

350.org's petition to the US Congress, calling for an 80% reduction of CO2 by 2050, may have helped defeat the "greenwash" Lieberman-Warner bill by focusing mass political protest on its billions of dollars in porkbarrel subsidies to fossil fuel and nuclear interests. Now the protest is becoming an organized political movement.

Also new is environmentalists' use of social networking aka Web 2.0 or ASN: MySpace, Facebook, Changents, YouTube, Flickr, Twitter, Google Groups and Yahoo Groups are bringing local and global youth, artists, musicians, green businessmen, preachers and housewives (as well as innumerable private donations) into the campaign. See by way of example Agent350. It is likely that GlobalVoicesOnline, as well as this summer's international youth conference of TakingITGlobal and and the upcoming World Social Forums will bring even more energy and contributions. We have just seen this phenomenon playing out in the Barack Obama campaign.

At the beginning of 2007, McKibben led a march across New England that turned into a living witness for earthcare (see our previous blog about interfaith action). Step It Up expected hundreds of scattered demonstrations for action on climate change during the year. It got thousands. Simultaneously, young leaders across North America were clamoring to become community organizers for Al Gore's climate action project.

The Bush administration and its fossil fuel allies overplayed their hand for six years -- gutting the EPA, refusing cap-and-trade, deregulating futures markets (cf. the Enron and commercial paper collapses, and recent oil price speculation), allowing corporate lobbyists to write new laws and regulations, building massive perverse subsidies into the Clean Air Act, and starting a $3 trillion war for oil in Iraq.

Their very success has caused a backlash. Faced with flat refusal by the Bush administration, cities and groups of states began their own initiatives to reduce emissions and set up carbon trading exchanges.(5) In a recent Pew survey 74% of the American public call global warming a serious issue, but only 35% say it should be a top priority for the next president. A UK survey shows a majority of voters influenced by skeptics. The battle for public opinion is not over. It must be noted that just when the environmental movement surged, so did the well-funded network of climate change deniers and their fellow travellers.

[Omitted from this article are other less-politicized groups such as

• the NASCA alliance of city, regional, state and national (US-Canada) initiatives to reduce their carbon footprint, with help from William Rees' One Earth Initiative, GUSSE and CIRS; with their counterparts on other continents in
  
• the UN Marrakech Process aka SCP and 10YFP; see also Wikipedia on Marrakech and SCP
  
• scientific networks involved in data-exchange, eco-system modelling and governance.

We will try to cover these in future reports. -- Ed.]

*****

Footnotes
(1) Hansen et al., "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?", submitted 7 Apr 08 to Open Atmospheric Science Journal, available pre-publication on arXiv:0804.1126v2. "If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm." Also Hansen and others in Chesapeake Climate Action Network . Recent evidence suggests major recalculation may be necessary: Arctic and Antarctic ice melt, methane release from thawing permafrost, pine beetle damage, ocean acidification and sea level rise, species loss, drought, wildfires, hurricanes, seasonal and eco-zone disruption, body burdens of toxics, spread of diseases like SARS and asthma, suggest the tipping point may be even lower. See the scientific debate in RealClimate. and Gather.com.

This does not prevent climate change deniers, quibblers, lobbyists and fellow travelers from urging, in the name of "economic stability" a much higher threshold than 350 ppm: e.g. Joseph Romm , Cato Institute blog. Alex Steffen offers a "green capitalist" perspective on these folk in Worldchanging.com.

(2) See the Canadian equivalent of the Stern report; the Harper government refused to act on it.

(3) See lists of affiliated organizations here and here. WWF Canada's The Good Life, and WWF-IUCN Connect2Earth are also using social networks.

(4) But the WBCSD and UNDP call for a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, compared to the 350.org goal of 80% -- a major difference. For a detailed study of what a post-Kyoto framework must do, see Oliver Tickell's Kyoto2: How to Manage the Global Greenhouse (to be published July 2008, summarized on his website).

(5) See NYT 6 May 2007, Brookings Institution report Oct 2007. A meaningful framework must include real caps on emissions with successive stepdowns or "wedges", and a worldwide carbon trading system to bid up the price of pollution. As the EU's experience shows, such a "cap and trade" system will require close watching at every stage to keep it honest. Even if CO2 is stabilized, its level will persist for at least a century: New Scientist 12 Oct 2006

Further reading

• Bill McKibben's original call to action, "Remember This: 350 ppm," Washington Post 27 Dec 07
• James Kunstler "Driving towards Disaster," Washington Post 25 May o8 reprinted in this blog
• Mark Lynas, "Climate chaos is inevitable" The Guardian 12 June 2008, his blog and books High Tide: News from a Warming World and Fragile Earth: Views of a Changing World.
• George Monbiot, Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning, summarized previously in this blog.
• James Hansen's recent presentations on the 350 ppm threshold.